That was the subject line of an e-mail I sent my buddy
Joe, who has so far resisted my exhortations for him to buy an Xbox 360 and not the overhyped and underwhelming PlayStation 3.
I wrote here months ago that Sony was in serious trouble, and I think the evidence so far has borne out that thesis. Joe thinks it's too early to count the electronics giant out. Here's our exchange on the topic:
Me: The New York Times continues to give it to Sony with
no lube...
Joe: This may shock you, but I can't say I disagree with most of what they are saying. However, I think that the PS3 will seriously gain traction once developers are used to developing for it. Then, expect some serious kick-ass games that will blow anything that the 360 and the Wee Wee have. Hopefully by then, the price will be lower as well and their online service will be more refined.
I see the PS3 as the game system for the future, and will hit it's stride as the 360 is on the downhill. The Wii, however, with it's unique, physical style of play may have a longer shelf-life.
I've been reading many glowing reviews of the Wii. I'm starting to get intrigued. With it's price point, I might have to consider it sooner rather than later (and you know I"m not much of a console guy generally).
Me: You might be right about Sony, Joe. At least the games should start to look better over the coming year, and they are sure to work out some of the kinks in the online setup. The question is whether or not they have dug themselves a hole too deep to get out of in time to save the business.
Sony is losing more than $300 on each PS3, compared to $100 for the Xbox at launch. Sure, that will come down but they need to crank up production -- and have the demand to soak it up -- in order for that to work. If the 360 and Wii draw away enough would-be PS3 buyers then Sony could be in real trouble financially. Sure, the company has $10 billion in cash, but Microsoft has $40 billion and is on the verge of turning a profit in the Xbox division.
Microsoft may be on to something when they say that launching a year early may turn out to be the
deciding factor. I mean, whatever Sony does with price, Microsoft can match and probably beat. In the end, people will look and say, "The PS3 costs X dollars more than a 360".
And you don't even get as many exclusive games. Once, Sony had locked up every cool title. Microsoft had "Halo", and an advance release of "Splinter Cell". But now GTA and other games are no longer Sony exclusives. So unless you
really have to have the next "Final Fantasy" or "Kingdom Hearts" game, there's not much reason to pick Sony because of
the games.
Unfortunately, Sony has also alienated a lot of gamers from the get-go with hype and arrogance. From comments that the high price tag wouldn't matter because people will be willing to work an extra job to afford one, to repeated launch delays, to more "game footage" that turned out to be pre-rendered and not in-game, Sony has gotten a lot of bad publicity.
In the latest
misstep, they apparently released the latest PS3 firmware patch (v1.3), requiring its installation but failing to tell anyone what the patch actually did. Microsoft has actually had a very good public Xbox face over the past couple years. An example is
Major Nelson, a guy who is high up in the Xbox Live development crew and who has run a widely-read blog detailing even minor developments. When Microsoft changed or updated Live, Major Nelson would announce it in advance and tell people what to expect. This was actually a result of a corporate-wide strategic decision Microsoft made to encourage blogging by its employees, rather than treat it as a threat like many other companies. Sony has yet to develop a similar tool to interface with the public.
Anyway, whether Sony loses this generation probably also depends on how you define "lose". After all, Nintendo certainly lost the last generation, yet they are stronger than ever now thanks to the DS and Wii magic. Since Sony had like 70 percent market share with the PS2, probably anything short of that will be looked upon as a failure. I think it's reasonable to think Sony's share will fall to 50 percent this go-around. I could even see things shaking out so each company has roughly one-third of the market.
Oh, one thing Sony can probably count on is the
Japan market. The Xbox 360 is only selling about one-fifth as many units as the PS2 (yes 2, not 3). So there it's a race between them an Nintendo. But the DS is wildly popular there, much more so than the PSP, so it remains to be
seen whether that magic will spill over to the Wii as well.
I think you told me once that you had a friend with a 360 and you saw "Oblivion" on it. I know it sounds hard to believe, especially if you've dealt with Microsoft software, but the 360 really is a slick piece of engineering in terms of the hardware, interface and network. It handles the gaming aspect flawlessly, and while it's still a bit short in the whole entertainment hub idea, it has the framework to do some really cool stuff in the future. I have the 360 hooked up to my router, which lets it pull music, photos and video from my PC in the next room and play them over our 36" TV and surround-sound stereo setup. The promise is there. Right now I would say the biggest drawback to the 360 is the meager 20GB hard drive. That makes it tough to do big downloads, like hi-def movies and TV shows they recently launched. They need to make a 100GB drive available soon, and have some sort of tool to make it easy to transfer your saved games and files over.
(The following is just additional commentary and was not part of my exchange with Joe):
So I think the momentum is clearly with the Xbox at this point, and the Wii is threatening to steal many other Sony customers away, particularly in Japan. Sony may be able to recover but it will be a tough slog with no simple solution. They need to get more machines on the market. They need some kick-ass, must-have games. They need to iron out the wrinkles in their firmware and in their online service. There are other issues, too: price and the viability of the Blu-Ray format chief among them. Who knows? Maybe in a year or two the system will be worth owning.
For now, though, let's fire up "Gears of War".